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Making the Most of Experience Data - An Augmented Beta-Binomial Approach

P.J. Sweeting

The popular beta-binomial approach to credibility offers an attractive
way of combining the results of experience and risk rating. However, when
applied to a particular age the information available from surrounding ages
is ignored. In this paper I propose an augmentation to the beta-binomial
approach which not only allows for the information contained in ages near
to the age under analysis, but also for variation in risk types across the
different ages.