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Mortality Regimes and Pricing

Andreas Milidonis, Yijia Lin and Samuel H. Cox

Mortality dynamics are characterized by changes in mortality regimes. This paper
describes a Markov regime switching model which incorporates mortality state
switches into mortality dynamics. Using the 1901-2005 US population mortality
data, we illustrate that regime switching models can perform better than well-known
models in the literature. Furthermore, we extend the Lee-Carter (1992) model in such
a way that the time-series common risk factor to all cohorts has distinct mortality
regimes with different means and volatilities. Finally, we show how to price
mortality securities with this model.

Keywords: Lee-Cater model, regime switching mortality model, mortality-linked securities
JEL classification: C02, C13, G22, G23